Oil prices and refinery margins fell slightly in first quarter of 2025
During the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), crude oil prices generally decreased while U.S. refinery margins initially increased before decreasing in the final month of the quarter. In this quarterly update, we review petroleum markets price developments in 1Q25, covering crude oil prices, refinery margins, biofuel compliance credit prices, and natural gas plant liquids prices.
U.S. oil companies spent less on interest over the last decade despite higher rates
Higher oil prices, increased drilling efficiency, and structurally lower debt needs have contributed to lower interest expenses for some publicly traded U.S. oil companies over the past decade, despite the level of interest rates across the economy being relatively high.
U.S. crude oil production rose by 2% in 2024
U.S. crude oil production grew by 270,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to average 13.2 million b/d, according to our Petroleum Supply Monthly. Almost all the production growth came from the Permian region.
Eagle Ford natural gas production increases as crude oil production holds steady
In our April Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. annual natural gas production from the Eagle Ford region in southwest Texas will grow from 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 to 7.0 Bcf/d in 2026. The increase in natural gas production comes as natural gas prices rise and demand for liquefied natural gas exports grows. Oil production in the Eagle Ford, on the other hand, has hovered around 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) since 2020, and we forecast it will remain about the same through 2026.
U.S. crude oil exports reached a new record in 2024
U.S. crude oil exports in 2024 surpassed the previous record set in 2023, exceeding an annual average of 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d). Despite this new record, crude oil export year—over—year growth slowed to 1% in 2024, compared with 14% in 2023 and 21% in 2022.
State Energy Data System: Lubricants, asphalt, and road oil through 2023
(Fri, 28 Mar 2025) Annual state-level estimates of consumption, prices, and expenditures for lubricants, asphalt, and road oil.
EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026 for the first time since 2017
In our March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 to 438,000 b/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025. Two new oil developments in Alaska—the Nuna and Pikka projects—are expected to boost crude oil production in the state after decades of decline. If realized, this annual production increase will be the first since 2017 and the largest since 2002..
State Energy Data System: Distillate fuel oil, renewable diesel, and biodiesel through 2023
(Fri, 28 Feb 2025) Annual state-level estimates of consumption, prices, and expenditures for distillate fuel oil and consumption for renewable diesel and biodiesel.
China’s crude oil imports decreased from a record as refinery activity slowed
Slower oil demand growth in 2024 led to less crude oil processed by China's refineries and fewer crude oil imports compared with the record high set in 2023. China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, received 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023. Even though total imports decreased about 2%, imports from some countries increased while others decreased.
China’s crude oil imports decreased from a record as refinery activity slowed
Slower oil demand growth in 2024 led to less crude oil processed by China’s refineries and fewer crude oil imports compared with the record high set in 2023. China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, received 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023. Even though total imports decreased about 2%, imports from some countries increased while others decreased.