Gulf of America oil and natural gas production expected to remain stable through 2026
We forecast crude oil production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of America (GOA) will average 1.80 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.81 million b/d in 2026, compared with 1.77 million b/d in 2024, in our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We expect GOA natural gas production to average 1.72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 1.64 Bcf/d in 2026, compared with 1.79 Bcf/d in 2024. At these volumes, the GOA is forecast to contribute about 13% of U.S. crude oil production and 1% of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026.
Tight oil production in Permian drives growth in onshore U.S. Lower 48 states production
Onshore crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 states (L48) has more than tripled since January 2010, driven by tight oil production growth in the Permian region. Onshore crude oil production is made up of both legacy oil production, primarily from vertically drilled wells, and newer tight oil production, primarily from horizontally drilled wells.
EIA forecasts world oil consumption growth to slow amid less economic activity
We forecast consumption growth of crude oil and other liquid fuels will slow over the next two years, driven by a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in Asia, in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Oil prices and refinery margins fell slightly in first quarter of 2025
During the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), crude oil prices generally decreased while U.S. refinery margins initially increased before decreasing in the final month of the quarter. In this quarterly update, we review petroleum markets price developments in 1Q25, covering crude oil prices, refinery margins, biofuel compliance credit prices, and natural gas plant liquids prices.
U.S. oil companies spent less on interest over the last decade despite higher rates
Higher oil prices, increased drilling efficiency, and structurally lower debt needs have contributed to lower interest expenses for some publicly traded U.S. oil companies over the past decade, despite the level of interest rates across the economy being relatively high.
U.S. crude oil production rose by 2% in 2024
U.S. crude oil production grew by 270,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to average 13.2 million b/d, according to our Petroleum Supply Monthly. Almost all the production growth came from the Permian region.
Eagle Ford natural gas production increases as crude oil production holds steady
In our April Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. annual natural gas production from the Eagle Ford region in southwest Texas will grow from 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 to 7.0 Bcf/d in 2026. The increase in natural gas production comes as natural gas prices rise and demand for liquefied natural gas exports grows. Oil production in the Eagle Ford, on the other hand, has hovered around 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) since 2020, and we forecast it will remain about the same through 2026.
U.S. crude oil exports reached a new record in 2024
U.S. crude oil exports in 2024 surpassed the previous record set in 2023, exceeding an annual average of 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d). Despite this new record, crude oil export year—over—year growth slowed to 1% in 2024, compared with 14% in 2023 and 21% in 2022.
State Energy Data System: Lubricants, asphalt, and road oil through 2023
(Fri, 28 Mar 2025) Annual state-level estimates of consumption, prices, and expenditures for lubricants, asphalt, and road oil.
EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026 for the first time since 2017
In our March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 to 438,000 b/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025. Two new oil developments in Alaska—the Nuna and Pikka projects—are expected to boost crude oil production in the state after decades of decline. If realized, this annual production increase will be the first since 2017 and the largest since 2002..