SPC Apr 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone
Hydrologic Outlook issued April 25 at 10:11AM AST by NWS San Juan PR
ESFSJU An increase in moisture, along with a series of troughs, will enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, and stretching into at least Thursday. At this time, USGS river sensors indicate that most streams are running normal to much above normal, and soils are saturated along eastern, interior and western Puerto Rico. Additionally, winds are expected to be weak through much of this period, so any rainfall activity that develops will be long-lasting. In general, we are expecting rainfall accumulation of 2 to 4 inches each day, with the heaviest accumulation along the interior, north and western
SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to
SPC Apr 25, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA.
SPC Apr 25, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and
SPC Apr 24, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture
SPC Apr 23, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of
SPC Apr 23, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday
SPC Apr 22, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows
SPC Apr 22, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While