SPC Mar 3, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100
SPC Mar 3, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have weakened considerably across the western North Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity over the past couple of hours. Storms -- and the associated upper low -- will continue moving east of the primary axis of instability, which will support a continued decrease in convective intensity. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of California and Nevada, but
SPC Mar 2, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...Western OK and Vicinity... a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across southern NM
SPC Mar 2, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the
SPC Mar 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more
SPC Mar 1, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant
SPC Mar 1, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad
SPC Mar 1, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more
SPC Feb 28, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low Friday. Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude organized thunderstorm development across the continental US today. ..Hart/Grams.. 02/28/2025 Read more
SPC Feb 28, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that an initially zonal, intense mid/upper jet across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific may undergo considerable amplification into and through this period. It remains a bit unclear how emerging waves will impact the downstream pattern by the middle to latter portion of next week. However, it still appears that one significant preceding short wave trough, migrating inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, will progress into and across the southern