SPC Jan 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward
SPC Jan 10, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more
SPC Jan 10, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf
SPC Jan 9, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the
SPC Jan 9, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the
SPC Jan 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday at mid-levels, a trough will move eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard as another trough moves through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast, as another strong cold front moves southward through the central states. A relatively cold and dry airmass will remain
SPC Jan 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be
SPC Jan 9, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max. At the surface, a
Hydrologic Outlook issued January 8 at 8:40AM AKST by NWS Anchorage AK
ESFAFC Recent and continuing warm weather and widespread rainfall have led to rising creek and stream levels from the Kenai Peninsula north into the Mat-Su Valleys. Overflow has been reported on creeks and over existing trails. Increased streamflows may also lead to localized ice jams. Those traveling on backcountry trails are encouraged to take extra caution around area streams, rivers and trails, as water may degrade ice and create difficult or hazardous conditions. Additional warm and wet weather is expected this weekend, which may lead to additional river rises and overflow conditions.
SPC Jan 8, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding