Tag: outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... A closed mid/upper low will drift southeast across the Gulf of CA vicinity. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection at 700 mb should eventually yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Isolated convection should develop overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, most of which should occur atop

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy;

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp