SPC Dec 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over AZ moving east and a northern stream trough over the Pacific Northwest. The northern mid-level trough will latitudinally expand southward into the central Rockies/south-central High Plains as a ridge amplifies over the Interior West in its wake. As this occurs, a partial phasing of mid-level trough
SPC Dec 23, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe-weather potential is still expected for Days 4-6 Thursday-Saturday, as an upper trough emerging from California and the Southwest deserts moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South by Thursday/Day 4. At least a low-end multi-day regional severe risk is expected across south-central and east/southeast Texas towards parts of the ArkLaTex, and possibly the Lower Mississippi Valley. In particular, Thursday/Day 4 could ultimately warrant Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities across south-central to east/southeast Texas although guidance variability persists, while
SPC Dec 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough currently exists along the coastal Pacific Northwest this evening, and height rises will occur tonight as the wave moves northeastward across OR and WA. In the near term, a few thunderstorms will remain possible over coastal northern CA, and farther north across western WA beneath the cooler air aloft. Most of the
SPC Dec 22, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. This upper feature will move east-northeast into British Columbia and WA/OR tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures will result in weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE) late today into tonight from portions of northern CA northward along the
SPC Dec 22, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A moderately amplified and more active/progressive southern-stream pattern is still expected later this week, along with a general northward fluctuation of low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. After a day of little or no severe-weather potential on Christmas Wednesday/Day 4, severe risks are expected to increase into Days 5-7 Thursday-Saturday. A secondary upper trough is expected to emerge from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Ozarks/Deep
SPC Dec 22, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the USA through tomorrow morning. The minimal thunderstorm threat has ended over parts of the Pacific Northwest as rapid warming aloft is underway behind a compact shortwave trough. Instability is not expected to materialize downstream into ID and MT, and as such all thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. Elsewhere, high pressure over the East and a dry air mass over land will maintain stable
SPC Dec 21, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning into early afternoon across parts of coastal Oregon and northern California. ...Coastal OR/northern CA... A potent mid to upper-level shortwave trough will move ashore the northern CA/OR coast and continue northeastward into the southern Canadian Rockies/northern Rockies vicinity through late tonight. Weak thunderstorm activity embedded within a warm-air advection rain shield will continue moving into the coastal range mountains this morning before
SPC Dec 21, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently
SPC Dec 21, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California coast early morning Saturday. ...Northern CA coast... An amplified upper trough will move northeast and approach the Pacific Northwest coast through 12Z Saturday. This will yield a pronounced low-level warm conveyor to overspread the adjacent offshore waters. This forcing for ascent in conjunction with an ample buoyancy plume has supported scattered to widespread thunderstorms around 500-600 miles offshore. This buoyancy
Hydrologic Outlook issued December 19 at 8:53PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
ESFMTR AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING MODERATE RAINFALL AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RIVER RISES ON NORTH BAY CREEKS AND STREAMS * WHATThe storm door is wide open with a very active storm track forecast to impact Northern California. Wet and unsettled weather will bring periods of light to moderate rainfall to the region with the biggest impact expected over the North Bay. The first couple of storms that are forecast to move across the North Bay Saturday and again on Sunday, will likely prime the soils resulting in quicker and more noteworthy rises of