SPC Dec 24, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level
SPC Dec 24, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Little lightning activity is ongoing this evening across the CONUS, with a few flashes noted just off the northern CA Coast earlier. Weak levels of elevated instability ahead of the primary upper trough may support sporadic flashes through tonight, mainly over northern CA. A greater chance of thunderstorms will occur over parts of OK and
Hydrologic Outlook issued December 22 at 3:20PM PST by NWS Seattle WA
ESFSEW An atmospheric river will bring significant rainfall to the Olympic Peninsula Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches are expected in the mountains, with locally over 5 inches over the highest peaks are possible. Snow levels will remain around 4000 to 5000 ft during this time frame. An extended wet period with snow levels above 4000 ft Thursday through next weekend over the Olympics and into portions of southwestern Washington. The area of concern for additional river flooding impacts may expand east to include rivers in Thurston and Lewis counties. Please monitor the latest river
SPC Dec 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over AZ moving east and a northern stream trough over the Pacific Northwest. The northern mid-level trough will latitudinally expand southward into the central Rockies/south-central High Plains as a ridge amplifies over the Interior West in its wake. As this occurs, a partial phasing of mid-level trough
SPC Dec 23, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe-weather potential is still expected for Days 4-6 Thursday-Saturday, as an upper trough emerging from California and the Southwest deserts moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South by Thursday/Day 4. At least a low-end multi-day regional severe risk is expected across south-central and east/southeast Texas towards parts of the ArkLaTex, and possibly the Lower Mississippi Valley. In particular, Thursday/Day 4 could ultimately warrant Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities across south-central to east/southeast Texas although guidance variability persists, while
SPC Dec 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough currently exists along the coastal Pacific Northwest this evening, and height rises will occur tonight as the wave moves northeastward across OR and WA. In the near term, a few thunderstorms will remain possible over coastal northern CA, and farther north across western WA beneath the cooler air aloft. Most of the
SPC Dec 22, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. This upper feature will move east-northeast into British Columbia and WA/OR tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures will result in weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE) late today into tonight from portions of northern CA northward along the
SPC Dec 22, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A moderately amplified and more active/progressive southern-stream pattern is still expected later this week, along with a general northward fluctuation of low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. After a day of little or no severe-weather potential on Christmas Wednesday/Day 4, severe risks are expected to increase into Days 5-7 Thursday-Saturday. A secondary upper trough is expected to emerge from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Ozarks/Deep
SPC Dec 22, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the USA through tomorrow morning. The minimal thunderstorm threat has ended over parts of the Pacific Northwest as rapid warming aloft is underway behind a compact shortwave trough. Instability is not expected to materialize downstream into ID and MT, and as such all thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. Elsewhere, high pressure over the East and a dry air mass over land will maintain stable
SPC Dec 21, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning into early afternoon across parts of coastal Oregon and northern California. ...Coastal OR/northern CA... A potent mid to upper-level shortwave trough will move ashore the northern CA/OR coast and continue northeastward into the southern Canadian Rockies/northern Rockies vicinity through late tonight. Weak thunderstorm activity embedded within a warm-air advection rain shield will continue moving into the coastal range mountains this morning before