SPC Dec 12, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central States... A shortwave trough over the central Great Plains will progress east into the Midwest, dampening somewhat late in the period. Its associated weak surface cyclone over eastern KS should undergo cyclolysis by early Sunday as it moves across the Mid-MS Valley. 60s surface dew points should generally be confined to east and south TX through Saturday afternoon. Low-amplitude mid-level
SPC Dec 12, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. See the previous discussion below for details regarding isolated lightning potential downwind of Lake Ontario. ..Weinman.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will
SPC Dec 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
Hydrologic Outlook issued December 11 at 3:07PM PST by NWS Seattle WA
ESFSEW A stronger storm will set up along the coast over the weekend with the potential to bring more significant precipitation to the region. Heaviest amounts over the southwestern slopes of the Olympic Mountains result in potential for the Skokomish River to rise above flood stage Saturday afternoon. Snow levels around 4500 feet Saturday are expected to lower to around 3000 feet early Sunday morning. Ongoing precipitation through early next week could help keep the river levels elevated into Monday. Please monitor the latest river forecasts from the National Weather Service for additional information.
Hydrologic Outlook issued December 12 at 3:31AM PST by NWS Seattle WA
ESFSEW A stronger storm will set up along the coast over the weekend with the potential to bring more significant precipitation to the region. Heaviest amounts over the southwestern slopes of the Olympic Mountains may result in potential for the Skokomish River to rise above flood stage Saturday afternoon. Snow levels around 4500 feet Saturday are expected to lower to around 3000 feet early Sunday morning. Ongoing precipitation through early next week could help keep the river levels elevated into Monday. Please monitor the latest river forecasts from the National Weather Service for additional information.
SPC Dec 12, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track
SPC Dec 12, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across
SPC Dec 12, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it
SPC Dec 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears
SPC Dec 11, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed along the western portion of the outlook, and reduced along the southern New England coast. For both areas, widespread stratiform rain has limited destabilization and the overall severe threat. Farther south, severe probabilities