U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2025 and 2026 with lower crude oil price
In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower
EIA forecasts lower oil price in 2025 amid significant market uncertainties
We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.
Henry Hub daily natural gas spot price reached all-time lows in November
The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price fell to $1.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on November 8 and November 11, 2024, an all–time low in inflation–adjusted dollars. Four of the record–low daily prices when adjusting for inflation occurred in November 2024, and the remaining six occurred in 2024 as well. The Henry Hub spot price in November averaged $2.12/MMBtu, the lowest average price for that month ever when adjusting for inflation.