Gulf of America oil and natural gas production expected to remain stable through 2026
We forecast crude oil production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of America (GOA) will average 1.80 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.81 million b/d in 2026, compared with 1.77 million b/d in 2024, in our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We expect GOA natural gas production to average 1.72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 1.64 Bcf/d in 2026, compared with 1.79 Bcf/d in 2024. At these volumes, the GOA is forecast to contribute about 13% of U.S. crude oil production and 1% of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026.
U.S. renewable diesel production and biodiesel production declined in 1Q25
U.S. production of renewable diesel and biodiesel fell sharply in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) because of uncertainty related to federal biofuel tax credits and negative profit margins. We forecast production of both fuels to increase as the year progresses but biodiesel production to remain less than in 2024.
Tight oil production in Permian drives growth in onshore U.S. Lower 48 states production
Onshore crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 states (L48) has more than tripled since January 2010, driven by tight oil production growth in the Permian region. Onshore crude oil production is made up of both legacy oil production, primarily from vertically drilled wells, and newer tight oil production, primarily from horizontally drilled wells.
U.S. sustainable aviation fuel production takes off as new capacity comes online
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is growing in the United States as new capacity comes online. U.S. production of Other Biofuels, the category we use to capture SAF in our Petroleum Supply Monthly, approximately doubled from December 2024 to February 2025.
U.S. natural gas production remained flat in 2024
U.S. marketed natural gas production remained relatively flat in 2024, growing by less than 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) compared with 2023 to average 113 Bcf/d, according to our latest Natural Gas Monthly. Production growth in the Permian was offset by declining production in the Haynesville and relatively flat production in Appalachia.
U.S. crude oil production rose by 2% in 2024
U.S. crude oil production grew by 270,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to average 13.2 million b/d, according to our Petroleum Supply Monthly. Almost all the production growth came from the Permian region.
Eagle Ford natural gas production increases as crude oil production holds steady
In our April Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. annual natural gas production from the Eagle Ford region in southwest Texas will grow from 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 to 7.0 Bcf/d in 2026. The increase in natural gas production comes as natural gas prices rise and demand for liquefied natural gas exports grows. Oil production in the Eagle Ford, on the other hand, has hovered around 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) since 2020, and we forecast it will remain about the same through 2026.
U.S. production of all types of coal has declined over the past two decades
In 2023, the United States produced 578 million short tons (MMst) of coal, or less than half of the amount produced in 2008 when U.S. coal production peaked, according to our most recent Annual Coal Report. The production decline is spread almost evenly across each type of coal and continued in 2024. Rising mining costs, increasingly stringent environmental regulations, and competition from other sources of electric power generation have contributed to domestic coal production declines.
U.S. uranium production in 2024 was highest in six years
Companies in the United States produced more uranium concentrate in 2024 than in any year since 2018 after a sustained period of higher uranium prices spurred production, according to our recently published Domestic Uranium Production Report—Quarterly. The increase largely came from two in—situ recovery facilities, one in Texas and one in Wyoming, and the resumption of uranium production at White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only operational uranium mill in the United States. Production in the fourth quarter of 2024 alone was higher than the total annual production for each of the years in 2019–23.
U.S. ethane production, consumption, and exports set new records in 2024
U.S. ethane production, consumption, and exports reached record highs in 2024, according to recent data from our Petroleum Supply Monthly. Increasing ethane recovery associated with natural gas production and continued growth in the domestic and global petrochemical sectors drove these increases.