Tag: severe

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that an initially zonal, intense mid/upper jet across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific may undergo considerable amplification into and through this period. It remains a bit unclear how emerging waves will impact the downstream pattern by the middle to latter portion of next week. However, it still appears that one significant preceding short wave trough, migrating inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, will progress into and across the southern

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential will be low to start the period with northerly flow across the Gulf on D4/Saturday. On D5/Sunday, a compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general, the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern Plains and

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a