Tag: severe

Official

SPC Jan 28, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this
Official

SPC Jan 27, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s
Official

SPC Jan 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across
Official

SPC Jan 26, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge is forecast over the southern Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves southward across the Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow will become more southwesterly over western parts of the southern Plains, as low-level moisture advection occurs across the southern part of Texas. Although showers could develop late in the period near the
Official

SPC Jan 25, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where
Official

SPC Jan 25, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of southern California on
Official

SPC Jan 24, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with
Official

SPC Jan 24, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore