Tag: severe

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe-weather potential is still expected for Days 4-6 Thursday-Saturday, as an upper trough emerging from California and the Southwest deserts moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South by Thursday/Day 4. At least a low-end multi-day regional severe risk is expected across south-central and east/southeast Texas towards parts of the ArkLaTex, and possibly the Lower Mississippi Valley. In particular, Thursday/Day 4 could ultimately warrant Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities across south-central to east/southeast Texas although guidance variability persists, while

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A moderately amplified and more active/progressive southern-stream pattern is still expected later this week, along with a general northward fluctuation of low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. After a day of little or no severe-weather potential on Christmas Wednesday/Day 4, severe risks are expected to increase into Days 5-7 Thursday-Saturday. A secondary upper trough is expected to emerge from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Ozarks/Deep

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more active southern-stream pattern should evolve next week, with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. One such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across east/southeast Texas on Tuesday/Day 5. Some severe risk could materialize, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will limit thunderstorm potential on Day 4/Sun. Starting Day 5/Mon, a progressive upper level pattern is forecast, and a series of shortwave trough will migrate across the Plains to the Midwest. As this occurs, surface lee troughing will support south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico. Modest boundary-layer moisture will being to return northward across TX toward OK by early

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude severe thunderstorm potential on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. By Day 6/Mon, medium range forecast guidance shows a series of upper shortwave troughs shifting east from the Rockies to the MS Valley through Day 8/Wed (Christmas Day). In response, lee troughing/surface low developing is expected over parts of the southern Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will support modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across parts of

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same