Tag: spc

MD 2282 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO EAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...The Texas Coastal Plain into East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261623Z - 261900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to steadily increase through the late morning and afternoon as the environment becomes more favorable for robust convection. Watch issuance is anticipated in the coming hours to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Open warm sector convection has been steadily increasing in both coverage and

MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261518Z - 261715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail (0.5 to 1.25 inch diameter) in the near-term (next couple of hours). A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected, but may become possible toward early afternoon for portions of the MCD area. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are occurring this morning in a low-level warm advection regime ahead of an approaching upper shortwave