SPC Dec 15, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail near severe limits is possible tonight from portions of north Texas to the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude longwave pattern will remain in place over the CONUS, with progressive shortwave to synoptic troughs traversing the prevailing westerlies. The leading trough -- currently anchored by a closed low near the northern IL/IN border --
SPC – No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 15 12:29:01 UTC 2024
No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 15 12:29:01 UTC 2024.
SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Sun Dec 15 12:29:01 UTC 2024
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 15 12:29:01 UTC 2024.
SPC Dec 15, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will move south and east across the eastern and southeastern U.S. on Day 4/Wed, moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by early Day 5/Thu. Showers and thunderstorms are possible near the cold front across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Day 4/Wed. However, weak instability and only modest vertical shear is expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. After Day 4/Wed, a mean upper level trough will persist over
SPC Dec 15, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS
SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Sat Dec 14 22:22:02 UTC 2024
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 14 22:22:02 UTC 2024.
SPC – No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 14 22:22:02 UTC 2024
No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 14 22:22:02 UTC 2024.
SPC Dec 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western edge of thunderstorm probabilities have been trimmed in the middle MS Valley vicinity, where additional thunderstorm development appears unlikely behind the strongly forced band of convection shifting eastward -- in tandem with the midlevel shortwave trough. Farther west, thunderstorm probabilities were also removed over portions of the Coastal Range in northern CA. Forecast soundings suggest EL
SPC Dec 14, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and become negatively tilted on Monday as it moves from the central Plains to the Northeast by 12Z Tuesday. A surface low will move from northern Minnesota to northern Ontario on Monday with a cold front extending from this surface low to the Great Lakes and the southern Plains. This front will
SPC MD 2267
MD 2267 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...AND VICINITY Mesoscale Discussion 2267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Areas affected...eastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and vicinity Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 141058Z - 141700Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain -- at rates locally in excess of 0.10"/hour -- will continue spreading north-northeastward across eastern Iowa and into northwestern Illinois through midday. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an expansive area of precipitation ongoing from the Arklatex region northward across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys this morning. The precipitation is occurring in an area of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent, east of a