SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Fri Nov 22 12:47:02 UTC 2024
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 22 12:47:02 UTC 2024.
SPC Nov 22, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the general pattern on Mon/D4, depicting a midlevel speed max nosing into the central Plains Monday morning, then phasing with an upper trough over the northern Plains. This should then result in an amplified shortwave trough moving across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Tue/D5 morning. An associated cold front will shunt the young moist plume back south toward the Gulf Coast. This trough is then expected to eject
SPC – No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 21 21:34:02 UTC 2024
No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 21 21:34:02 UTC 2024.
SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Thu Nov 21 21:34:02 UTC 2024
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 21 21:34:02 UTC 2024.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns remain limited through the extended period. The upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley will continue to promote widespread rain/snow chances across these regions and into the Northeast over the next 48 hours. The precipitation associated with this system, combined with seasonal temperatures over the next several days, will limit fuel concerns across the northern/northeastern CONUS. A breakdown of the upper ridge over the central U.S. will transition
SPC Nov 21, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A line of convective rain/show showers continues across the Appalachians with occasional lightning flashes. This will persist for a few more hours before weakening late this afternoon as the boundary layer cools and low-level lapse rates weaken. Lightning is expected to remain offshore near the New England coast and the Pacific Northwest coast and therefore, the thunder line has been
SPC Nov 21, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS is forecast to become more zonal with time as prominent troughing on either coast gradually deamplifies. Ridging over the central CONUS will weaken and shift eastward as the East Coast trough moves offshore. To the west, strong mid-level flow will move inland across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as the upper low cuts
SPC Nov 21, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast Friday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow is likely over much of the CONUS Friday, with a deep upper low off the East Coast and a similarly deep trough off the West Coast. Between the two lows, a shortwave ridge will slowly migrate eastward over the central Plains. At the surface, a low and trailing
SPC – No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 21 09:49:01 UTC 2024
No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 21 09:49:01 UTC 2024.
SPC Nov 21, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western