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Tag: spc

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SPC MD 169

MD 0169 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS....WESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas....western Missouri...northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141525Z - 141730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An initial round of convective development is expected to remain sub-severe as it spreads northeastward across parts of western Missouri and northwestern Arkansas through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated during the past few hours across parts of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma. This is occurring within the evolving warm sector of
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SPC Mar 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid South. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will
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SPC Mar 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be
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SPC Mar 13, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over
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SPC MD 165

MD 0165 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA Mesoscale Discussion 0165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0903 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Sierra over central California Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 130203Z - 130600Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue over the next several hours, with snowfall rates potentially increasing to over 2 inches per hour soon. DISCUSSION...Deep-layer moisture and ascent persists across portions of California into the Great Basin with the approach of a potent upper trough. Deep-layer cold-air advection with the upper trough's approach is encouraging the column to cool to
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