SPC Mar 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and
SPC – No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 17 17:20:02 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 17 17:20:02 UTC 2025.
SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Mon Mar 17 17:20:02 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 17 17:20:02 UTC 2025.
SPC Mar 17, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of
SPC Mar 17, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA
SPC – No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 17 05:41:01 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 17 05:41:01 UTC 2025.
SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Mon Mar 17 05:41:01 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 17 05:41:01 UTC 2025.
SPC Mar 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally
SPC MD 228
MD 0228 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 53... FOR WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. Mesoscale Discussion 0228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...West Virginia...far western Maryland...western and central Pennsylvania...and far southwestern New York. Concerning...Tornado Watch 53... Valid 161608Z - 161745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remains through mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has now developed along the pre-frontal trough across West Virginia and eastern Ohio/southwest Pennsylvania. This line of storms is already starting to accelerate
SPC MD 229
MD 0229 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 51... FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS Mesoscale Discussion 0229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of the eastern Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 51... Valid 161713Z - 161845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 51. A couple of additional damaging gusts or tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A WW replacement may be needed for eastern NC pending favorable convective trends. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters across central NC continue to move eastward as a thunderstorm cluster over eastern