SPC MD 114
MD 0114 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KS...FAR NORTHEASTERN OK AND THE OZARK PLATEAU Mesoscale Discussion 0114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern KS...far northeastern OK and the Ozark Plateau Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 181820Z - 182345Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across portions of eastern KS and the Ozarks over the next few hours. Rates of 1-1.5 in/hr are expected within the heavier banding. DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, regional radar and surface observations showed a broad area of winter precipitation ongoing over the Plains and beginning
SPC Feb 18, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Low-level warm-air and moisture advection are already underway across
SPC – No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 17 06:01:01 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 17 06:01:01 UTC 2025.
SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Mon Feb 17 06:01:01 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 17 06:01:01 UTC 2025.
SPC Feb 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly
SPC – No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 16 18:00:02 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 16 18:00:02 UTC 2025.
SPC MD 109
MD 0109 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND Mesoscale Discussion 0109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern New York...Northern New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 161328Z - 161930Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will likely develop across parts of northern New York and northern New England this morning. Further south into parts of east-central New York and central New England, a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this morning. DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough will quickly move through the southern and central Appalachians this morning. A surface low
SPC MD 111
MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC Mesoscale Discussion 0111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern through north central Virginia and adjacent portions of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161755Z - 162030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany showers spreading east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, across the Mid Atlantic, this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Beneath the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling (generally in the 850-500 mb layer)
SPC Feb 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the
SPC Feb 16, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet