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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, April 13, 2025
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, April 13, 2025

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report EOC Activation Level:  Level 2 Meteorological Summary: High pressure across the Southeast U.S. will bring pleasant conditions and a near-zero chance of rain across the Sunshine State today. Drier conditions will allow relative humidity values to drop near and below critical thresholds (15-35%)  this afternoon statewide creating sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions. Calmer winds near 5-10 mph can be expected, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 15 mph along the immediate East Coast due to the sea breeze, but Red Flag Conditions are not expected. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper
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SPC Apr 13, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will
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SPC Apr 13, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A very low chance of early day convection may exist
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SPC Apr 13, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern is expected late week into next weekend. ...D5/Thursday... Guidance has converged to a signal of severe-storm threat centered on Thursday evening as a deep surface cyclone becomes established in the KS vicinity, downstream of a longwave trough in the West. An enriching low-level moisture plume will be advected nearly due north from the western Gulf towards the Lower MO Valley. A stout EML should limit convective development along much of
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SPC Apr 13, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe
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SPC Apr 13, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its
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SPC Apr 13, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the Intermountain West to the central High Plains. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Great Lakes and lower to mid Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will move into the mid
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SPC Mar 13, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over
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SPC Mar 13, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, February 13, 2025
Official

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, February 13, 2025

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report EOC Activation Level:  Level 2 Meteorological Summary: Patchy to dense sea fog  will linger along immediate coastlines and over coastal water throughout the day, primarily along the Gulf Coast. A cold front moving eastward through the Florida Panhandle will continue to push a line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it eastward through North Florida today (60-95% chance of rain). Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Eastern Panhandle and through the Big Bend; strong to severe thunderstorms  capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (40-60
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