SPC Feb 19, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee
SPC Feb 19, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more
SPC Jan 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential largely appears negligible across the CONUS through Tuesday night. An exception could be along the Gulf Coast. Shallow and highly elevated convection, predominately producing sleet at the surface, should be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday along the northwest Gulf Coast. Mid-level lapse rates will be progressively weaker with eastern extent downstream, suggesting that lightning production will likely be
SPC Jan 19, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively
SPC Jan 19, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic
SPC Jan 19, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore
SPC Jan 19, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold
SPC Jan 19, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and
SPC Dec 19, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The upper-tropospheric pattern is evolving back to an eastern mean trough and western ridge for a few days, as a series of shortwave troughs dig southeastward from the northern/central Plains and upstream parts of western/central Canada. Low-level cold frontal passage related to the eastern troughing will render the airmass east of the Rockies too dry and/or stable for thunderstorms over land for
SPC Dec 19, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will limit thunderstorm potential on Day 4/Sun. Starting Day 5/Mon, a progressive upper level pattern is forecast, and a series of shortwave trough will migrate across the Plains to the Midwest. As this occurs, surface lee troughing will support south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico. Modest boundary-layer moisture will being to return northward across TX toward OK by early