Tag: 4-8

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The severe potential remains limited through the day 4-8 period. On D4/Friday, an upper level trough will be located across the eastern US with strengthening upper level ridging across the western US into the Rockies. Along the dryline in far western Texas, a few thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible. This threat may be limited in duration and coverage by the southward moving cold front expected to extend from the southern Plains into

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with broad troughing across the eastern US and a surface low tracking northeastward across the Great Lakes. A cold front will stretch from the northeastern US southward into the southern Plains, shifting eastward on D4/Thursday across the Ohio Valley into the southeastern US. Beyond D4/Thursday, heights will begin to rise across the Plains as an upper level high strengthens, which will limit the

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu -- Central/Southern Plains... Some severe thunderstorm potential is possible across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Thu. Similar to the Day 2-3/Tue-Wed period, a low-amplitude, and generally modest deep-layer southwesterly flow regime will persist. Southerly low level flow ahead of a southward sagging front across the central Plains, and to the east of a dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains will sustain advection of Gulf moisture across the region. At least some

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more