SPC Apr 10, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the
SPC Apr 9, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south
SPC Apr 8, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Day 4/Friday, an amplified large-scale trough will move slowly eastward across the Appalachians. Ahead of a related surface low in the lee of the Appalachians, weakly modified boundary-layer moisture will be in place across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. While instability will be marginal, owing to the limited moisture and poor lapse rates, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow may support a couple strong storms during the afternoon. The overall severe threat appears too marginal for severe
SPC Apr 4, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a
SPC Apr 3, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the
SPC Mar 2, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the
SPC Mar 1, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad
SPC Feb 28, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that an initially zonal, intense mid/upper jet across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific may undergo considerable amplification into and through this period. It remains a bit unclear how emerging waves will impact the downstream pattern by the middle to latter portion of next week. However, it still appears that one significant preceding short wave trough, migrating inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, will progress into and across the southern
SPC Feb 27, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the
SPC Feb 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential will be low to start the period with northerly flow across the Gulf on D4/Saturday. On D5/Sunday, a compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken