Tag: convective

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some