SPC Feb 20, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an
SPC Feb 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the
SPC Feb 20, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop
SPC Feb 19, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL
SPC Feb 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the
SPC Feb 19, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee
SPC Feb 19, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more
SPC Feb 18, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... In the wake of a cold front exiting the Florida Peninsula, strong surface high pressure (1040+ mb) and an Arctic air mass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Prevalent cold and stable conditions are expected to considerably limit thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more
SPC Feb 18, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Low-level warm-air and moisture advection are already underway across
SPC Feb 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly