A look back at our forecast for global crude oil prices in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.
Brent crude oil prices traded in a narrow range in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil futures prices averaged $80 per barrel (b) in 2024, $2/b less than in 2023. Intraday prices stayed within a $24/b range, between $68/b and $93/b (after rounding), which was the narrowest trading range since 2019. Adjusting the trading range for inflation, last year was the narrowest since 2003. Strong global growth in production of oil and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices, while heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restrictions among OPEC+ members supported them. These offsetting factors kept oil prices within a narrow range.
Improved efficiency is enabling record U.S. crude oil production from fewer rigs
Crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 (L48) states, which excludes Alaska and offshore production, reached a record 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in November 2024, according to our estimate in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published on December 10. Crude oil production in the L48 states increased 3% year over year despite fewer active rigs in most major producing regions, demonstrating gains in operational efficiency.
U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Wells by Production Rate
(Thu, 19 Dec 2024) Our Well Distribution Report presents historical, annual state-level data on well distribution by size and technology and analyzes emerging trends for 2023. Crude oil and natural gas wells drilled horizontally through hydrocarbon-bearing formations are among the most productive wells in the United States. The total number of horizontally drilled wells has increased 88% since 2014. In 2023, 77% of the more than 918,000 U.S. wells produced 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day or less. These wells are mostly older and drilled vertically.
India to surpass China as the top source of global oil consumption growth in 2024 and 2025
India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025, overtaking China this year, according to our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). China’s oil consumption grew by more than India’s in almost every year from 1998 through 2023, with China’s oil consumption regularly growing more than any other country during those years.
Improving well productivity helps U.S. oil companies increase production at a lower cost
Second-quarter 2024 financial results for 34 publicly traded U.S. oil exploration and production (E&P) companies suggest increasing well productivity is helping these companies reduce production costs on a per barrel basis and freeing up cash for other uses such as dividends and share repurchases.
Argentina’s crude oil and natural gas production near record highs
Crude oil and natural gas production in Argentina are both nearing record highs, driven by increasing output from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which is offsetting declining output from conventional oil and natural gas fields. From January 2021 through September 2024, crude oil production in Argentina increased by 50%, and natural gas production rose by 27%, lifting output of both fuels near the records set in the early 2000s, according to data from the country's energy ministry, the Secretaría de Energía de la República Argentina (SESCO).
Argentina’s crude oil and natural gas production near record highs
Crude oil and natural gas production in Argentina are both nearing record highs, driven by increasing output from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which is offsetting declining output from conventional oil and natural gas fields. From January 2021 through September 2024, crude oil production in Argentina increased by 50%, and natural gas production rose by 27%, lifting output of both fuels near the records set in the early 2000s, according to data from the country’s energy ministry, the Secretaría de Energía de la República Argentina (SESCO).
Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production
(Fri, 29 Nov 2024) These monthly production estimates are based on data from Form EIA-914, Monthly Crude Oil, Lease Condensate, and Natural Gas Production Report.
U.S. Movements of Crude Oil By Rail
(Fri, 29 Nov 2024) Monthly data on rail movements of crude oil have been updated for September 2024. Crude oil movements by rail have significantly increased during the past five years. The data on crude-by-rail (CBR) movements are also fully integrated with EIA’s existing monthly petroleum supply statistics, which already include crude oil movements by pipeline, tanker, and barge.