China’s crude oil imports decreased from a record as refinery activity slowed
Slower oil demand growth in 2024 led to less crude oil processed by China's refineries and fewer crude oil imports compared with the record high set in 2023. China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, received 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023. Even though total imports decreased about 2%, imports from some countries increased while others decreased.
China’s crude oil imports decreased from a record as refinery activity slowed
Slower oil demand growth in 2024 led to less crude oil processed by China’s refineries and fewer crude oil imports compared with the record high set in 2023. China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, received 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023. Even though total imports decreased about 2%, imports from some countries increased while others decreased.
Rarely used oil, coal helped power New England during recent cold snap
Below average temperatures in the eastern United States during the week of January 19, 2025, resulted in high demand for electricity. On January 21 at 6:00 p.m. eastern time, ISO-New England (ISO-NE), the organization operating an integrated grid in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, recorded peak hourly demand of 19,600 megawatts (MW). Although demand was elevated, it was lower than the 20,308 MW that ISO-NE forecast peak demand would be in its 2024/2025 winter assessment published on November 7, 2024. Temperatures were more moderate in New England than in the Midwest, which tempered electricity demand somewhat
U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2025 and 2026 with lower crude oil price
In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower
EIA forecasts lower oil price in 2025 amid significant market uncertainties
We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia's oil exports to the global market.
A look back at our forecast for global crude oil prices in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.
Brent crude oil prices traded in a narrow range in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil futures prices averaged $80 per barrel (b) in 2024, $2/b less than in 2023. Intraday prices stayed within a $24/b range, between $68/b and $93/b (after rounding), which was the narrowest trading range since 2019. Adjusting the trading range for inflation, last year was the narrowest since 2003. Strong global growth in production of oil and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices, while heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restrictions among OPEC+ members supported them. These offsetting factors kept oil prices within a narrow range.
Improved efficiency is enabling record U.S. crude oil production from fewer rigs
Crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 (L48) states, which excludes Alaska and offshore production, reached a record 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in November 2024, according to our estimate in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published on December 10. Crude oil production in the L48 states increased 3% year over year despite fewer active rigs in most major producing regions, demonstrating gains in operational efficiency.
U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Wells by Production Rate
(Thu, 19 Dec 2024) Our Well Distribution Report presents historical, annual state-level data on well distribution by size and technology and analyzes emerging trends for 2023. Crude oil and natural gas wells drilled horizontally through hydrocarbon-bearing formations are among the most productive wells in the United States. The total number of horizontally drilled wells has increased 88% since 2014. In 2023, 77% of the more than 918,000 U.S. wells produced 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day or less. These wells are mostly older and drilled vertically.
India to surpass China as the top source of global oil consumption growth in 2024 and 2025
India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025, overtaking China this year, according to our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). China’s oil consumption grew by more than India’s in almost every year from 1998 through 2023, with China’s oil consumption regularly growing more than any other country during those years.