Tag: outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over NM/Chihuahua quickly moving eastward into Far

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A potent mid to upper-level low west of southern CA will move east and evolve into an open trough and reach the AZ-NM/Sonora-Chihuahua border vicinity by early Wednesday morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers associated with the cold core will spread east during the day from southern CA

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into