SPC Dec 16, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from southern OH southwest to western TN and
Hydrologic Outlook issued December 16 at 4:11AM PST by NWS Seattle WA
ESFSEW An atmospheric river will impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing potentially significant rainfall that could drive some rivers in western Washington into flood stage. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding river flooding mid-week, but the latest rainfall forecast shows 4 to 7 inches over the Olympic Peninsula with snow levels as high as 7000 to 8000 feet. Forecast models show large variability in the forecast, with as much as 8 inches or higher over the Olympics in less than 36 hours. The northern and central Cascades will also see heavy rainfall during this period, with
SPC Dec 15, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado may occur tonight through early Monday morning from parts of north Texas to the Ozarks. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest guidance indicates some potential for embedded/loosely organized cells tracking northeastward across southeast MO
SPC Dec 15, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail near severe limits is possible tonight from portions of north Texas to the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude longwave pattern will remain in place over the CONUS, with progressive shortwave to synoptic troughs traversing the prevailing westerlies. The leading trough -- currently anchored by a closed low near the northern IL/IN border --
SPC Dec 15, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will move south and east across the eastern and southeastern U.S. on Day 4/Wed, moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by early Day 5/Thu. Showers and thunderstorms are possible near the cold front across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Day 4/Wed. However, weak instability and only modest vertical shear is expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. After Day 4/Wed, a mean upper level trough will persist over
SPC Dec 15, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS
SPC Dec 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... The western edge of thunderstorm probabilities have been trimmed in the middle MS Valley vicinity, where additional thunderstorm development appears unlikely behind the strongly forced band of convection shifting eastward -- in tandem with the midlevel shortwave trough. Farther west, thunderstorm probabilities were also removed over portions of the Coastal Range in northern CA. Forecast soundings suggest EL
SPC Dec 14, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and become negatively tilted on Monday as it moves from the central Plains to the Northeast by 12Z Tuesday. A surface low will move from northern Minnesota to northern Ontario on Monday with a cold front extending from this surface low to the Great Lakes and the southern Plains. This front will
Hydrologic Outlook issued December 13 at 10:15AM CST by NWS Bismarck ND
ESFBIS Ice continues to form and move through the Bismarck and Mandan stretch of the Missouri River. As of late Thursday afternoon, ice continued to move all the way down to the Hazelton boat ramp area. While this suggests lots of storage remains for the ice pans, sooner...rather than later, ice will start to accumulate where the river meanders down by the University of Mary. Once ice occupies a continuous stretch across the Missouri River in that area, it usually only takes about one day to fill the river channel up through the Bismarck and Mandan area. While it is
SPC Dec 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak