Tag: convective

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid South. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and